My Blog

A novel application of generalized linear models is in the power rankings of sports teams. This blog will post weekly power rankings and predictions for each round of the 2023 NRL season based on a Bradley-Terry model (with homeground advantage) using head-to-head results up to the given round.

To learn more about fitting the Bradley-Terry model, click here.

Disclaimer: Power rankings and predictions are for educational purposes only.

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 12)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.4 times.

Predictions for Round 13 (Not accounting for State of Origin I):
Dolphins def Dragons, with 85% confidence
Eels def Cowboys, with 65% confidence
Broncos def Warriors, with 59% confidence
Rabbitohs def Raiders, with 78% confidence
Sea Eagles def Knights, with 51% confidence*

*Too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 2/8
Predictions to date: 31/56 (Is this better than flipping a coin?)

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 11)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.6 times.

Predictions for Round 12:
Broncos def Panthers, with 71% confidence
Roosters def Dragons, with 79% confidence
Rabbitohs def Eels, with 93% confidence
Sharks def Knights, with 77% confidence
Cowboys def Tigers, with 76% confidence
Dolphins def Storm, with 65% confidence
Bulldogs def Titans, with 50.1% confidence*
Raiders def Sea Eagles, with 79% confidence

*Too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 4/8
Predictions to date: 29/48

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 10)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.5 times.

Predictions for Round 11:
Broncos def Storm, with 71% confidence
Warriors def Bulldogs, with 53% confidence*
Panthers def Roosters, with 67% confidence
Rabbitohs def Tigers, with 97% confidence
Cowboys def Dragons, with 81% confidence
Raiders def Eels, with 60% confidence
Titans def Knights, with 53% confidence*
Sea Eagles def Sharks, with 52% confidence*

*Too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 5/8
Predictions to date: 25/40

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 9)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.8 times.

Predictions for Round 10 (Magic Round):
Raiders def Bulldogs, with 57% confidence
Broncos def Sea Eagles, with 87% confidence
Warriors def Panthers, with 54% confidence
Sharks def Dolphins, with 57% confidence*
Rabbitohs def Storm, with 68% confidence
Dragons def Tigers, with 78% confidence
Roosters def Cowboys, with 84% confidence
Titans def Eels, with 56% confidence

*Dolphins def Sharks with 54% confidence if Suncorp considered homeground for Dolphins

Last week’s predictions: 4/8
Predictions to date: 20/32

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 8)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.6 times.

Predictions for Round 9:
Sharks def Cowboys, with 90% confidence
Eels def Knights, with 63% confidence
Broncos def Rabbitohs, with 86% confidence
Raiders def Dolphins, with 57% confidence
Sea Eagles def Titans, with 86% confidence
Panthers def Tigers, with 98% confidence
Warriors def Roosters, with 75% confidence
Dragons def Bulldogs, with 71% confidence

Last week’s predictions: 7/8
Predictions to date: 16/24

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 7)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.3 times.

Predictions for Round 8:
Rabbitohs def Panthers, with 56% confidence
Broncos def Eels, with 88% confidence
Sharks def Bulldogs, with 56% confidence
Knights def Cowboys, with 53% confidence*
Dolphins def Titans, with 87% confidence
Sea Eagles def Tigers, with 98% confidence
Roosters def Dragons, with 88% confidence
Storm def Warriors, with 51% confidence*

*too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 5/8

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 6)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.1 times.

Predictions for Round 7:
Dolphins def Rabbitohs, with 79% confidence
Roosters def Sharks, with 61% confidence
Sea Eagles def Storm, with 51% confidence*
Warriors def Cowboys, with 91% confidence
Knights def Panthers, with 69% confidence
Broncos def Titans, with 77% confidence
Raiders def Dragons, with 70% confidence
Bulldogs def Eels, with 66% confidence

*too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 4/8

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 5)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 3.2 times.

Predictions for Round 6:
Roosters def Storm, with 71% confidence
Bulldogs def Rabbitohs, with 93% confidence
Dolphins def Cowboys, with 66% confidence
Panthers def Sea Eagles, with 70% confidence
Broncos def Raiders, with 98% confidence
Titans def Dragons, with 69% confidence
Warriors def Knights, with 85% confidence
Eels def Tigers, with 98% confidence

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Round 4)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.9 times.