A novel application of generalized linear models is in the power rankings of sports teams. This blog will post weekly power rankings and predictions for each round of the 2022 NRL season based on a Bradley-Terry model (with homeground advantage) using head-to-head results up to the given round.
To learn more about fitting the Bradley-Terry model, click here.
Disclaimer: Power rankings and predictions are for educational purposes only.
NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 11)
Power rankings and relative skill ratings:
Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.6 times.
Predictions for Round 11:
Broncos def Knights, with 84% confidence Tigers def Bulldogs, with 51% confidence* Eels def Sea Eagles, with 77% confidence Dragons def Warriors, with 71% confidence
Storm def Cowboys, with 55% confidence
Panthers def Roosters, with 82% confidence Rabbitohs def Raiders, with 68% confidence
Sharks def Titans, with 66% confidence
*too close to call