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NRL Power Rankings and Predictions 2022

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A novel application of generalized linear models is in the power rankings of sports teams. This blog will post weekly power rankings and predictions for each round of the 2022 NRL season based on a Bradley-Terry model (with homeground advantage) using head-to-head results up to the given round.

To learn more about fitting the Bradley-Terry model, click here.

Disclaimer: Power rankings and predictions are for educational purposes only.

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 11)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round11

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.6 times.

Predictions for Round 11:
Broncos def Knights, with 84% confidence
Tigers def Bulldogs, with 51% confidence*
Eels def Sea Eagles, with 77% confidence
Dragons def Warriors, with 71% confidence
Storm def Cowboys, with 55% confidence
Panthers def Roosters, with 82% confidence
Rabbitohs def Raiders, with 68% confidence
Sharks def Titans, with 66% confidence
*too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 3/8
Predictions to date: 35/56 (Is this better than flipping a coin?)

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 10)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round10

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.9 times.

Predictions for Round 10 (updated for Magic Round*):
Bulldogs def Knights, with 53% confidence
Broncos def Sea Eagles, with 68% confidence
Warriors def Rabbitohs, with 50.6% confidence**
Dragons def Titans, with 61% confidence
Panthers def Storm, with 50.4% confidence**
Sharks def Raiders, with 81% confidence
Eels def Roosters, with 73% confidence
Cowboys def Tigers, with 90% confidence

*Suncorp Stadium considered neutral venue for non-QLD teams
**too close to call

Last week’s predictions: 6/8
Predictions to date: 32/48

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 9)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round9

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.0 times.

Predictions for Round 9:
Rabbitohs def Broncos, with 71% confidence
Raiders def Bulldogs, with 53% confidence
Panthers def Eels, with 99% confidence
Sea Eagles def Tigers, with 86% confidence
Roosters def Titans, with 87% confidence
Cowboys def Knights, with 86% confidence
Storm def Dragons, with 88% confidence
Sharks def Warriors, with 80% confidence

Last week’s predictions: 5/8
Predictions to date: 26/40

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 8)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round8

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.9 times.

Predictions for Round 8:
Sharks def Broncos, with 84% confidence
Panthers def Titans, with 99% confidence
Sea Eagles def Rabbitohs, with 57% confidence
Warriors def Raiders, with 72% confidence
Roosters def Bulldogs, with 92% confidence
Eels def Cowboys, with 93% confidence
Storm def Knights, with 78% confidence
Dragons def Tigers, with 80% confidence

Last week’s predictions: 6/8
Predictions to date: 21/32

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 7)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round6

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 1.6 times.

Predictions for Round 7:
Sharks def Sea Eagles, with 52% confidence
Broncos def Bulldogs, with 69% confidence
Cowboys def Titans, with 69% confidence
Rabbitohs def Tigers, with 81% confidence
Eels def Knights, with 59% confidence
Panthers def Raiders, with 99% confidence
Roosters def Dragons, with 59% confidence
Storm def Warriors, with 91% confidence

Last week’s predictions: 6/8
Predictions to date: 15/24

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 6)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round5

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.3 times.

Predictions for Round 6:
Raiders def Cowboys, with 88% confidence
Rabbitohs def Bulldogs, with 90% confidence
Panthers def Broncos, with 99% confidence
Sea Eagles def Titans, with 96% confidence
Storm def Sharks, with 59% confidence
Roosters def Warriors, with 94% confidence
Knights def Dragons, with 89% confidence
Eels def Tigers, with 99% confidence

Last week’s predictions: 5/8
Predictions to date: 9/16

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 5)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round4

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 3.6 times.

Predictions for Round 5:
Knights def Sea Eagles, with 81% confidence
Cowboys def Warriors, with 70% confidence*
Roosters def Broncos, with 61% confidence
Raiders def Storm, with 64% confidence*
Rabbitohs def Dragons, with 57% confidence
Eels def Titans, with 90% confidence
Sharks def Tigers, with 97% confidence
Panthers def Bulldogs, with 98% confidence

* Redcliffe and Wagga Wagga considered as neutral venues for the home team

Last week’s predictions: 4/8
Predictions to date: 4/8

NRL Power Rankings and Predictions (Week 4)

Power rankings and relative skill ratings:

Round3

Home ground advantage is estimated to increase home team’s odds of winning by 2.4 times.

Predictions for Round 4:
Titans def Tigers, with 98% confidence
Knights def Sharks, with 94% confidence
Panthers def Rabbitohs, with 98% confidence
Broncos def Warriors, with 88% confidence
Raiders def Sea Eagles, with 64% confidence
Cowboys def Roosters, with 93% confidence
Storm def Bulldogs, with 52% confidence
Eels def Dragons, with 98% confidence

Last week’s predictions: N/A
Predictions to date: N/A